10x slowdown in high-performance computing progress

According to Strohmaier, Meuer, Dongarra and Simon in “The TOP500 List and Progress in High-Performance Computing” in the November 2015 Computer

As we approach the exascale era, the rate of increase in peak and application performance of our largest systems has clearly slowed. Our analysis suggests that over the next decade we will likely fall short fall short for performance increases by almost an order of magnitude (100x instead of 1,000x). An even more substantial slowdown can be expected once any change or an end to Moore’s law affects increases in per-socket performance.

Any such slowdown will eventually open up opportunities for companies to explore competitive advantages through stronger architectural differentiation.

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